CHICAGO, Nov. 09, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Numerator, a consumer data and technology company, released its October 2026 Numerator Consumer Goods Price Index (CGPI), an advance read on consumer inflation based on verified household purchases. The CGPI measures the prices consumers actually pay for everyday goods and provides context for how inflation differs across consumer groups and product sectors, accounting for real-time changes in purchasing behavior, including brand and retailer switching. According to Numerator, prices for everyday household purchases increased 0.6% in October following a 0.7% increase in September. These consecutive month-over-month increases come after decreases in August and July. In October, prices for everyday goods are up 2.7% versus a year ago, an acceleration of the year-over-year inflation rate relative to the 2.1% in September.
Additional key findings from Numerator’s October CGPI:
- Prices for everyday household goods are up 34.8% since January 2018 and are up 2.7% over the past 12 months as annual inflation accelerated in October after holding steady at 2.1% in September.
- Concern about rising prices is at a record high. In Numerator’s October 2026 Economic Sentiment Tracker of over 2,000 U.S. consumers, 42.2% identified rising prices as their top concern for the coming year, surpassing the previous record high 40.5% from the August 2026 survey. Numerator has tracked consumer sentiment and financial outlook monthly since January 2024.
- Low-income and Gen Z consumers continue to experience higher levels of inflation for everyday household goods, as prices have increased 36.7% and 41.3%, respectively, for those groups since January 2018 vs. the 34.8% national average.
- Low-income and Gen Z consumers are experiencing higher inflation in part because they spend more on quick-service restaurants than the average consumer. Quick-service restaurant prices have increased 55.4% since January 2018.
- In addition to facing the highest cumulative inflation of any cohort since January 2018, Gen Z consumers also experienced the largest year-over-year growth in October at 3.8% compared to the 2.7% U.S. average, widening the gap relative to the national average.
- Regionally, cumulative inflation remained relatively similar across the South, West, and Midwest in October, while the Northeast continued to see the smallest price increase since January 2018 at 33.7%. Since the summer, there has been an observed divergence in regional inflation as the Midwest and West regions have consistently experienced higher annual inflation rates relative to the Northeast and South.
Similar to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Numerator CGPI tracks prices and changes in consumer purchases over time. The data cover approximately 20% of the consumption basket captured in the overall PCE price index, and closely track the PCE Food & Beverage index, offering a reliable signal of retail price changes experienced by U.S. consumers.
“After two months of declining prices this summer, inflation for everyday goods has accelerated again, and consumers are increasingly concerned about what comes next,” said Paul Stanley, Senior Economist at Numerator. “Prices are now nearly 35% higher than they were in 2018, and more than four in ten consumers say rising prices are their top concern for the coming year. The latest data show that inflation remains a persistent pressure on household budgets, particularly for younger consumers who continue to experience higher price increases than the national average.”
For a methodology description of the Numerator CGPI, or to download the data charts, visit numerator.com/inflation.
DISCLAIMER
The Numerator Inflation Report has been prepared for informational purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained in or provided from or through this report is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice. Numerator shall have no liability to any person or entity for any loss or damage resulting from the use of or reliance on the above-mentioned information.
METHODOLOGY
Numerator CGPI
Numerator’s consumer inflation measure is constructed using both base-period and current-period quantity weights to combine item prices, an approach that shares structural similarities with the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ PCE Price Index. Numerator’s Consumer Goods Price Index reflects what consumers actually purchased in each period, using verified household transactions rather than fixed baskets or survey-modeled weights used by traditional inflation measures.
The index is calculated from an average of approximately 7 million verified, item-level transactions each month provided by a panel of geographically and demographically representative U.S. households. These data include purchases across categories such as grocery, household goods, and health and beauty. Since the index uses receipt-level purchase data, Numerator’s CGPI reflects the actual prices consumers pay after promotions, coupons, and loyalty discounts are applied. The data capture changes in consumer purchasing behavior when prices change, including brand switching, downsizing, and shifts in where consumers buy in real-time.
Values are aggregated monthly to produce index levels and month-over-month and year-over-year percent changes, providing a current view of inflation trends that can be viewed across demographic groups to explain how inflation is experienced across different segments of the population.
The Numerator CGPI’s year-over-year inflation measure has a 0.93 correlation with the PCE Food and Beverage index since 2019.
Numerator Economic Sentiment Tracker
The Numerator Economic Sentiment Tracker provides a monthly view of consumer confidence, spending & saving considerations, and future financial outlook. The tracker is powered by a continuous survey to our consumer panel, capturing over 2,000 responses each month since its launch in January 2024.
About Numerator
Numerator is a data company transforming how consumers and markets are understood. Powered by advanced technology and proprietary, zero-party purchase and survey data from more than one million households, Numerator provides visibility into consumer behavior and attitudes across consumer goods, retail, restaurants, tech and media, management consulting, institutional investors, and the public sector. Headquartered in Chicago, Numerator drives decisions at the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies in more than 50 countries.
Bob Richter Numerator 212-802-8588 press@numerator.com
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